Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents: Anticipating Capabilities, Tactics, and Strategic Implications

This report introduces "Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents" (HACCAs), AI systems capable of autonomously conducting multi-stage cyber campaigns comparable to top hacking groups. It defines HACCAs, forecasts their emergence, identifies five core operational tactics (e.g., autonomous infrastructure setup, detection evasion), and analyzes strategic implications like intensified interstate cyber competition and proliferation of offensive capabilities. It also flags tail risks such as inadvertent cyber-nuclear escalation and sustained loss of control, proposing policy recommendations.